Research library
Research for private markets and Polymarket arbitrage
Memos for investors, issuers, analysts, and editors evaluating Ultramar's capital products.
The library connects market structure, issuer diligence, operating data, signals, dashboard review, legal boundaries, and risk controls.
Market structure memo
How prediction-market prices diverge from derivatives-implied probabilities
A practical explainer for allocators and market-structure readers on why Polymarket prices can separate from derivatives-implied probability models.
Private markets primer
What has to exist before private equity can move on token rails
A primer for RWA investors, issuers, and fintech operators on the operating layer needed before tokenized private equity can be useful.
Issuer oracle memo
Why operating data matters more than token wrappers for private-market trust
A memo for founders, CFOs, and RWA infrastructure teams on using issuer operating data to make tokenized private markets more understandable.
Risk controls memo
Sizing, liquidity, and model-drift controls for event-market arbitrage
A memo for LPs, allocators, and crypto fund analysts on the controls required before event-market arbitrage can be treated as fund infrastructure.