Arbitrage Hedge Fund / Signal Review
Polymarket Signal Board
Monitor Polymarket arbitrage signals with implied probabilities, model probabilities, spread confidence, and product-scope boundaries.
Signals
3
Avg Spread
0.050
Exposure
$10,505
Active Positions
2
Signal FAQ
How the signal board should be interpreted
Signals are observations for review; they are not automatic trade instructions.
What does the Ultramar signal board measure?
It measures Polymarket event prices against model probabilities, then exposes spread, confidence, status, and update timing so dislocations can be reviewed before sizing.
Is every spread an active trade?
No. A spread can remain in monitoring until persistence, liquidity, hedge context, and event-resolution language are strong enough to support a fund signal.
Why are derivatives mentioned if the product is Polymarket-first?
Derivatives can inform probability models and hedge assumptions, but derivative-only strategies are research context rather than active commercial product scope in v1.