Question 1

What does the Ultramar signal board measure?

Accepted Answer

It measures Polymarket event prices against model probabilities, then exposes spread, confidence, status, and update timing so dislocations can be reviewed before sizing.

Question 2

Is every spread an active trade?

Accepted Answer

No. A spread can remain in monitoring until persistence, liquidity, hedge context, and event-resolution language are strong enough to support a fund signal.

Question 3

Why are derivatives mentioned if the product is Polymarket-first?

Accepted Answer

Derivatives can inform probability models and hedge assumptions, but derivative-only strategies are research context rather than active commercial product scope in v1.

Polymarket Signal Board