Sizing, liquidity, and model-drift controls for event-market arbitrage

Event-market arbitrage can look simple when reduced to a spread. In practice, the spread is only one input. Venue liquidity, event resolution rules, timing, hedge quality, and model drift can dominate the outcome.

That is why Ultramar puts risk next to signals. Allocators need to see how the fund thinks about exposure before they can evaluate the opportunity.

Sizing should be capped by confidence, liquidity, drawdown tolerance, and concentration. Exposure monitoring should separate open notional, stale signals, realized PnL, and venue-specific risk. Hedge discipline should define where derivatives inform probabilities versus where they become active hedges.

The dashboard makes these controls inspectable. The risk materials explain the policy behind the dashboard.

Adjacent strategies can be valuable research without being marketable products. A strategy should graduate only after data quality, risk limits, and allocator language are complete.

That boundary protects the brand and the investor: Ultramar can publish research while keeping the live product focused on Polymarket-first arbitrage.