Arbitrage Hedge Fund / Allocator Review
Dashboard
Signals, positions, and guardrails.
Signals
3
Avg spread
0.050
Exposure
$10,505
Guardrails
Live
Signal Board
| Market | Implied | Model | Spread | Confidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US election popular vote share above threshold Polymarket / 2m ago | 42.0% | 48.0% | +0.060 | High | Active |
BTC closes above weekly volatility band Polymarket / 8m ago | 31.0% | 36.0% | +0.050 | Medium | Sizing |
ETH ETF flow exceeds consensus range Polymarket / 14m ago | 57.0% | 53.0% | -0.040 | Watch | Monitoring |
Position Summary
Election probability basket
Polymarket
Hedge: Deribit BTC vol proxy
Macro data event basket
Polymarket
Hedge: USDC cash reserve