Signal health
Active and monitored dislocations are summarized with count, average spread, confidence, and stale-signal awareness.
Arbitrage Hedge Fund / Allocator Review
Dashboard
Review the allocator dashboard for Polymarket-first arbitrage signals, position exposure, notional sizing, and guardrail status.
Position exposure
Position cards translate current market sizing into notional exposure that allocators can compare with hedge assumptions.
Guardrail status
The dashboard keeps sizing, concentration, liquidity, and spread-persistence controls visible beside the signal board.
Allocator review
Allocator review distinguishes Polymarket monitoring from research-only ideas before any strategy graduates.
Signals
3
Active or monitored dislocations
Avg spread
0.050
Absolute probability spread
Exposure
$10,505
Current notional sizing
Guardrails
Live
Sizing and concentration checks
Signal Board
Polymarket prices compared with model probabilities before sizing review.
| Market | Implied | Model | Spread | Confidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
US election popular vote share above threshold Polymarket / 2m ago | 42.0% | 48.0% | +0.060 | High | Active |
BTC closes above weekly volatility band Polymarket / 8m ago | 31.0% | 36.0% | +0.050 | Medium | Sizing |
ETH ETF flow exceeds consensus range Polymarket / 14m ago | 57.0% | 53.0% | -0.040 | Watch | Monitoring |
Position Summary
Election probability basket
Polymarket
Hedge: Deribit BTC vol proxy
Macro data event basket
Polymarket
Hedge: USDC cash reserve
Research context
Dashboard metrics need a risk memo behind them
Allocator metrics need research context explaining spread quality, exposure, and strategy graduation rules.
Market structure memo
How prediction-market prices diverge from derivatives-implied probabilities
A practical explainer for allocators and market-structure readers on why Polymarket prices can separate from derivatives-implied probability models.
Read memoRisk controls memo
Sizing, liquidity, and model-drift controls for event-market arbitrage
A memo for LPs, allocators, and crypto fund analysts on the controls required before event-market arbitrage can be treated as fund infrastructure.
Read memoDashboard FAQ
How allocators should read the dashboard
How to connect signal health, exposure, and risk controls before evaluating allocation.
Who is the arbitrage dashboard for?
The dashboard is written for allocators and fund reviewers who need to inspect active signals, position exposure, hedge context, and guardrail status together.
How is the dashboard different from the signal board?
The signal board focuses on market-level dislocations. The dashboard adds portfolio context by connecting those signals to exposure, sizing, and controls.
Does the dashboard imply every research strategy is live?
No. The dashboard preserves a Polymarket-first product boundary and keeps lending or derivative-only ideas in research until their controls are complete.
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Private Equities
Tokenized access to vetted private-market assets.